Permutations and Combinations
How to think like a pro when submitting multiple entries
Daily Fantasy Sports contests will either restrict players to a single entry or allow multiple entries from the same user. The maximum amount might be capped at say 100 or 200 but it goes some way towards explaining why you will often see familiar names ranking highly or being duplicated on the leader-boards.
Players who submit multiple entries do so because they think it gives them an edge. Firstly, they believe that they have the pre-requisite skill-set to optimise line-ups giving them an advantage over the majority of the field, following many of the key fundamentals to success highlighted in our Wisdom section, including those all-important goal expectancies.
They also perceive that they will be getting great expected value since many of the tournaments they enter will be undersubscribed. With the prize pool being guaranteed it means that the operator will have to cough up the deficit and this phenomenon is known as overlay. Effectively there will be x amount of entries completing the field who all score 0 points when this situation occurs.
By placing multiple line-ups they can combine their core players with a few more risky propositions. It gives them more chances to claim the big prizes while many of their other entries will still be strong enough to finish in the cash, even accounting for variance.
You could submit completely random line-ups but a smarter play is to select one or two additional players for each position and then combine these so that you are covered if one or two players under-perform. Let’s suppose you want to field a 3-4-3 formation but decide to select 6 midfielders and 4 forwards. This would work out at 60 combinations and allows for a couple of players to have an off-day. You can now go for a couple of differential picks that might be low-owned, combining these with your core group and look to strike gold with one of your full line-ups. You’ll need to make sure that the most expensive line-up is within the stipulated budget to ensure that all the others will be.
We’ll use this week’s Mondogoal English Premier £10k Shootout to demonstrate. Entries are capped at a maximum of 100, the buy-in is £3 and the top 775 places from a potential field of 3700 will finish in the money. So you would be investing £180 but have 60 chances to cash.
With 5 of the 6 games kicking-off at 16:00 CET you will only have to worry about the evening game for potential non-starters. Have a back-up player ready for each position in case any player is excluded from the starting line-up so that you can make any necessary adjustments in that vital hour after teams are announced.
We’ve gone for a cheap goalkeeper option and defenders who are ranking well for consistency points this season.
We may regret fading the in-form Alexis Sánchez but Wenger indicated that he might rest him after the Münich game. Giroud could come in with Walcott shifting out wide but we’re going to take a chance on Oxlade-Chamberlain, who should finally get a start in place of the injured Ramsey. Arsenal have the highest goal expectancy this week and the Ox has plenty to prove as Martin Laurence was keen to point out in a recent WhoScored article, nevertheless, we think he’s the type of player who could really make your line-up stand out from the crowd and have a real impact this weekend.
We’re looking for goals from Norwich, Stoke and Chelsea and will be hoping for a high-scoring clash when Leicester City entertain Crystal Palace. Mbokani did enough against Newcastle to deserve another chance and he comes with a good goal-scoring pedigree while Sako could start in an advanced forward role for the Eagles.
This is a fun way to approach any tournament and a great way to explore new strategies!