It’s Not a Coin Toss
50/50 Fantasy Football Strategy Tips
One of the most profitable fantasy football strategies is to target 50/50 contests where entries that ‘place’ in the top half of the field finish in the money.
However, in order to do this successfully you must put a few firm foundations in place first.
You must understand what return on investment is needed to ensure long-term profitability. Even though these contests are referred to as 50/50 you will need to record a strike rate that is better than 50% to account for the commission the game operator charges when you enter a contest.
To do this, simply divide your total stake (including any buy-in fee) by the expected returns you would receive, should you finish in the top half of the field.
For example, let’s say you are participating in a 20 runner $2 buy-in on DraftKings UK, where the top 10 finishers each receive $3.60 (The total entry fees comes to $40 but the ‘operator’ deducts $4 to cover his expenses). A quick calculation would tell you that you must ‘cash’ in over 55.55% (as opposed to over 50%) of the contests you enter to generate long-term profits.
It’s also worth noting that not all players are equal, so the concept of it being a 50/50 can be somewhat misleading. Now it’s time to put the other fundamentals in place.
Avoid small fields if possible – you want to eliminate variance as much as possible. If you are playing against one opponent you won’t know how strong he is, whereas a larger set of random players is likely to include a number that lack your general know-how. Remember you don’t need to win the tournament, you just need to defeat half of the entries.
Picking your team
The key to 50/50 fantasy football player selection is to go for consistent types rather than those with high standard deviation. The latter group are ideal for large field tournaments, where a couple of differential picks are needed to set your line-up apart from the opposition.
Focus on the scoring system in place and try to determine which actions are repeatable. Each game will have scoring nuances that you need to familiarise yourself with.
Also make use of the goal projections we publish on a weekly basis to ensure that you are targeting players from the right teams.
If you are given a salary to spend, make good use of it, since the operators are usually very adept at pricing players. You shouldn’t be leaving too much spare cash on the table.
Avoid common pitfalls
The importance of playing time can never be over-stated. If you select any non-starters you lessen your chances of success considerably.
Check team news carefully by making best use of all available resources and follow-up.
If late-swap is available take advantage of it but if it isn’t, don’t take chances on players that might be questionable starters in games that are scheduled to start later in the day or week.
Digest your results
Don’t panic if you don’t enjoy immediate success. Look at your team selection to ascertain if you made any mistakes. Ask yourself some questions – did the players you select play in the position you expected them to, did the managers use their regular formations, did you choose players who had ‘favourable’ fixtures and did all your players get sufficient playing time ?
If you are happy with your conclusions then move on – success will follow.
DraftKings 50/50 Fantasy Football Player Selection (GW7)
To conclude, we’ve taken a quick look at Sunday’s Premier League action on DraftKings and have put together a line-up based on the recommendations above.
There are a number of contests available featuring the 4 scheduled Premier Leagues games and the goal expectancies can be found here.
Remember – it’s not a toin coss – your only objective is to defeat at least 50% of the field!
Let us know what you think of our provisional line-up and who you have chosen to include in yours.