World Cup 2018: Group Stage Goal Projections, Clean Sheet Probabilities & Fixture Difficulty Ratings

The Panini Sticker Album had been released, so that could only mean one thing – the countdown to the 2018 World Cup Finals was well and truly on.

The tournament also marked the introduction of VAR technology at a FIFA World Cup, adding another variable for fantasy football managers to consider.

Ahead of the tournament, Fantasy Sports Portal produced a Fantasy Football Cheatsheet covering key data for all of the group-stage matches played in Russia.

The Cheatsheet included fixture difficulty ratings based on the perceived strength of each opponent, projected goals for every participating nation, associated clean sheet probabilities and percentage estimates for potential match outcomes.

The objective was to provide an easy-to-use reference that could help fantasy football managers assess the relative difficulty of each country’s three group-stage fixtures.

World Cup 2018 Fantasy Football Cheatsheet

Editor’s note: This article was originally published ahead of the 2018 FIFA World Cup. The interactive table containing our original group-stage goal projections, clean sheet probabilities and fixture difficulty ratings is no longer available following a later website migration. The article has been retained as part of the Fantasy Sports Portal archive because it documents the statistical approach we used to assess tournament fixtures for fantasy football.

How the Fixture Difficulty Ratings Worked

Opponents in the original group summaries were colour coded using a system similar to the fixture difficulty ratings familiar to Fantasy Premier League managers. Easier fixtures were represented at the favourable end of the scale, while stronger opposition received a more difficult rating.

Numerical values were also included, with lower numbers representing theoretically softer fixtures.

The projections also allowed fantasy managers to compare how many goals each team was expected to score and concede during its respective group-stage matches, combining attacking potential, clean sheet probability and fixture difficulty in a single tournament reference.

World Cup 2018 Penalty Takers →