Gameweek 5 Premier League Goal Projections

Premier League Gameweek 5 2016/17: Fantasy Football Goal Projections Revisited

Premier League Gameweek 5 of the 2016/17 season presented fantasy football managers with something very different from the relatively balanced slate that had preceded it.

Manchester City, Tottenham Hotspur, Arsenal, Manchester United, Everton, Leicester City and Southampton all entered the weekend with favourable-looking fixtures, creating several obvious routes towards attacking fantasy points.

Fantasy Sports Portal originally analysed the gameweek through projected team goals and match-up strength.

Looking back, it provides an interesting snapshot of a Premier League season featuring Pep Guardiola’s arrival at Manchester City, Antonio Conte’s first campaign at Chelsea and a collection of attacking players who would define the era.

Manchester City Entered Gameweek 5 as the Leading Attack

Manchester City were the standout team in our original goal projections ahead of a home fixture against Bournemouth.

Guardiola had made an immediate impact after arriving in England, winning his opening Premier League matches and establishing City as early title favourites.

The major fantasy complication was the absence of Sergio Agüero.

That created an opportunity for Kelechi Iheanacho, who had scored in City’s 2-1 Manchester derby victory at Old Trafford the previous weekend.

The young Nigerian striker was producing goals at an exceptional rate relative to his playing time and consequently looked like one of the most intriguing short-term fantasy options of the gameweek.

City’s Champions League Preparation Was Far From Ideal

There was, however, an unusual complication before the Bournemouth match.

Manchester City’s Champions League fixture against Borussia Mönchengladbach was postponed for 24 hours because of severe weather in Manchester.

That reduced the recovery period before City’s Premier League fixture and provided a reminder of something fantasy managers still have to consider today: European competition can influence domestic selection.

Fixture congestion increases the possibility of rotation, particularly when managers have strong squads and several competitions to manage.

Tottenham vs Sunderland Offered Another Major Opportunity

Tottenham Hotspur were another team carrying strong attacking projections.

Mauricio Pochettino’s side welcomed Sunderland to White Hart Lane after beating Stoke City 4-0.

Harry Kane had ended his early-season scoring drought in that victory, immediately making him a significant fantasy consideration again.

Dele Alli also remained one of the Premier League’s most interesting attacking midfielders, operating in advanced areas and regularly arriving inside the penalty area.

At the time we had also examined Alli’s potential as an England number 10 in our analysis of England’s attacking midfield options.

Romelu Lukaku Had Just Exploded Back Into Form

Few players entered Gameweek 5 with more momentum than Romelu Lukaku.

Everton had beaten Sunderland 3-0 at the Stadium of Light on the Monday before the gameweek, with Lukaku scoring a remarkable hat-trick in just 12 minutes.

More importantly, the goals ended an 11-match Premier League scoring drought.

For fantasy managers, it was precisely the sort of performance capable of triggering a major ownership swing.

Lukaku was a proven Premier League scorer, Everton were showing signs of improvement under Ronald Koeman and his confidence appeared to have returned instantly.

That combination made him one of the gameweek’s most compelling forward options.

Lukaku’s Everton Form Was More Than a Short-Term Run

With hindsight, the Sunderland hat-trick was not merely an isolated performance.

It formed part of what became Lukaku’s finest Premier League season for Everton.

He eventually scored 25 league goals in 2016/17, finishing second behind Harry Kane in the Golden Boot race.

Our later analysis of Romelu Lukaku’s Everton development examined why the Belgian striker was becoming increasingly difficult for Premier League defences to contain.

Arsenal and Manchester United Were Also Strong Favourites

Gameweek 5 was unusual because several major clubs appeared to possess favourable attacking match-ups simultaneously.

Arsenal travelled to Hull City while Manchester United visited Watford.

Arsenal’s attacking options included Alexis Sánchez, Mesut Özil and Olivier Giroud, while José Mourinho’s Manchester United had begun the season with Zlatan Ibrahimović leading an imposing new-look attack.

On projected goals alone, both clubs offered obvious fantasy potential.

But projections are probabilities rather than guarantees — something the actual results would demonstrate particularly clearly.

Chelsea vs Liverpool Was the Gameweek’s Marquee Fixture

Gameweek 5 began on Friday night with Chelsea hosting Liverpool at Stamford Bridge.

The fixture brought together two managers who would have an enormous influence on the Premier League over the following years: Antonio Conte and Jürgen Klopp.

Liverpool won 2-1 through goals from Dejan Lovren and Jordan Henderson, with Henderson producing one of the outstanding strikes of the early season.

Diego Costa replied for Chelsea but Liverpool held on for an important away victory.

From a fantasy perspective, the match illustrated the difficulty of assessing elite teams facing each other. Strong attacking players can still return points, but projected scoring opportunities are generally easier to identify when leading clubs face weaker opposition.

What Actually Happened in Gameweek 5?

Looking back at the results provides an interesting test of the original projections.

• Chelsea 1-2 Liverpool
• Hull City 1-4 Arsenal
• Manchester City 4-0 Bournemouth
• Leicester City 3-0 Burnley
• Everton 3-1 Middlesbrough
• Watford 3-1 Manchester United
• Tottenham Hotspur 1-0 Sunderland

Several of the strongly favoured teams delivered exactly the type of attacking returns the projections suggested.

Manchester City scored four. Arsenal scored four. Leicester and Everton both scored three.

Manchester United provided the major exception, losing 3-1 at Watford despite entering the match as favourites.

Why Goal Projections Matter in Fantasy Football

The underlying principle behind the original analysis remains useful.

Fantasy football is fundamentally a game of probabilities.

Managers cannot know exactly who will score, assist or keep a clean sheet, but they can identify situations where those outcomes are more likely.

Team goal projections can help establish:

• which attacks have the strongest fixtures;
• which forwards are most likely to receive scoring opportunities;
• where captaincy upside may exist;
• which midfielders benefit from favourable attacking environments; and
• which apparently attractive players are facing difficult match-ups.

Team Strength Is Only Part of the Calculation

The 2016 Gameweek 5 slate also demonstrated why simply selecting players from the strongest teams is not enough.

Fantasy managers must consider minutes, injuries, suspensions, tactical roles and rotation.

Iheanacho, for example, became particularly interesting because Agüero was unavailable.

A player who might ordinarily have carried substantial rotation risk suddenly had a much clearer route into Guardiola’s starting XI.

The same principle remains relevant whenever a first-choice attacker is absent.

Fixture Difficulty Can Create Fantasy Opportunity

One of the most enduring lessons from historical fantasy football analysis is that price and reputation are only part of player selection.

Opportunity matters.

A moderately priced attacker facing a vulnerable defence can sometimes offer greater short-term potential than a premium player involved in a difficult fixture.

That was why Gameweek 5 looked so attractive in 2016.

Several strong teams had favourable fixtures at the same time, giving fantasy managers numerous ways to attack the slate.

Gameweek 5 Revisited

The original Fantasy Sports Portal projections identified Manchester City as the strongest attacking option and highlighted Tottenham, Everton, Arsenal, Leicester and Manchester United among the other favourites.

Most delivered.

City’s 4-0 victory over Bournemouth and Arsenal’s 4-1 win at Hull were particularly strong confirmations of the underlying match-up analysis.

Lukaku continued his resurgence for Everton, while Watford’s victory over Manchester United provided the reminder every fantasy manager eventually learns:

Good projections improve your odds. They do not predict football.

That uncertainty is precisely what makes fantasy football interesting.

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